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The precise form of timeseries model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, Links of London the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. For example, data for some industries may be particularly prone to seasonality, i.e. seasonal trends. In other industries, there may be pronounced nonlinearity, whereby large recessions, for example, may occur more frequently than cyclical booms. Our approach varies from industry to industry. Common to our analysis of every industry, however, is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable’s own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply Links of London e Charm capacity. When forecasting for some of our industry subcomponent variables, however, using a variable’s own history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such singlevariable analysis is called univariate modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models the autoregressive moving average model ARMA. In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic Links of London D Charm or data quality is poor. In such cases we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting. It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable part in all our industry forecasting techniques. Intimate knowledge of the data and industry ensures we spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not. Transport Industry There are a number of principal criteria that drive Links of London c charm forecasts for each transport variable GDP Growth As transport activity is heavily influenced by real GDP growth, this factor is examined to ascertain its relationship with overall trade volumes. Projected GDP growth is calculated using BMI’s own macroeconomic and demographic forecasts.